According to the results of the so-called heinsberg study, 1.8 million people in germany could have been infected with the coronavirus by now. This is the result of an estimate based on a model calculation, the university of bonn announced on monday.
A leading epidemiologist made a cautious comment. The researchers led by virologist hendrik streeck based their estimate on the number of people infected in the community of gangelt in the district of heinsberg and the mortality rate calculated there for corona infection. The researchers assume that 0.37 percent of those infected in gangelt died. However, only seven deaths were included in the calculation of the mortality rate.
From these data they calculated a theoretical number for germany. In principle, this works like this: the researchers assume that mortality is roughly the same throughout germany. So if it is known how many infected people there are for every dead person, then the number of deceased people, which the RKI puts at more than 6,500, can be used to estimate the number of people who are actually infected – including those who have not been recorded.